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FINANCE 4041: Financial Modeling – Spring

Purpose

The purpose of this project is to give you an independent hands-on experience on financial modelling and analysis. In this term project, you are expected to model and find the stock price per share of a publicly traded company (except Wal-Mart, Target and Costco) using either Discounted Cash Flow Approach or Comparable Company Analysis we discussed in the lectures. The will receive separate evaluations your modelling skill (Excel model) and analysis skill (analyst report).

Required Submission

You must submit your project documents on Canopy by 11:59 PM of Monday, April 24th, 2017. Each day of late submission will receive 3 points deduction in the total score received and any submission later than April 28th, 2016 will no longer be accepted for consideration. The documents submitted on Canopy should include

• The most recent annual report (SEC filing 10-K) in PDF format for the firm used in the analysis
• An Excel Document with model totaling 100 points(for detailed instruction, see below)
• A Word/PDF document with analysis report totaling 50 points (for detailed instruction, see below)

All contents used in this analysis, including annual reports, quarterly filings and stock prices should be up to date and reflect the most recent information in the market.

You may corporate with one other student in the class as a group for this project. Groups larger than 2 people need instructor’s pre-approval before the project starts. Each group member should notify the other group member’s name in their report. Members in the same group could submit the same Excel document. The analyst reports, however, should differ depends on the work load share within the group. Please note that two Excel documents will be considered as cooperated group work if any one of the three following criteria is met:

(1) the two documents have one sheet that are identical to each other; OR
(2) the two documents have 8 column, either within the same sheet or across different sheets, are identical to each other; OR
(3) the two documents have 12 rows, either within the same sheet or across different sheets, are identical.

If a group has more than 2 people without approval, a proportion of points earned will be deducted based on work load. For example, in a group of 2 students working on COMPS approach, each group member is expected to complete 3 (6 sheets divided by 2) sheets. If the group has 3 students, then each group member on average complete 2 (6 sheets divided by 3) sheets. Members of this group will therefore receive two thirds of the points they earned on the Excel submission.

If a submission is identical to another student’s (or group’s) submission, both groups will be considered as plagiarism. If a submission is identical to work submitted by a previous student (or group), the later submission will be considered as plagiarism.

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Case Approach

Scientific Methodology

We use best scientific approach to solve case study as recommended and designed by best professors and experts in the World. The approach followed by our experts are given below:

Defining Problem

The first step in solving any case study analysis is to define its problem carefully. In order to do this step, our experts read the case two three times so as to define problem carefully and accurately. This step acts as a base and help in building the structure in next steps.

Structure Definition

The second step is to define structure to solve the case. Different cases has different requirements and so as the structure. Our experts understand this and follow student;s university guidelines to come out with best structure so that student will receive best mark for the same.

Research and Analysis

This is the most important step which actually defines the strength of any case analysis. In order to provide best case analysis, our experts not only refer case materials but also outside materials if required to come out with best analysis for the case.

Conclusion & Recommendations

A weak conclusion or recommendations spoil the entire case analysis. Our expert know this and always provide good chunks of volume for this part so that instructors will see the effort put by students in arriving at solution so as to provide best mark.

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Instructions

Instruction on Excel Model

General requirements on Excel model include

• Your Excel Model should be clean and easy to read. Avoid unnecessary highlights and variation in font color and/or style.
• Follow the accounting customs of cell formatting (proper boarders should be included).

• IMPORTANT: Use comment to highlight source of extraordinary data inputs, your key assumptions in projection and the forecasting approaches you applied. For example, if the Annual Report predicted a mandatory capital lease obligation during the next year, and you wish to put this amount into your Debt Schedule, you should comment the cell with the source of this input as “Source: Annual Report, page X, planned capital lease obligation”.
• Adjust the Zoom Level of your Excel back to 100% if you have changed it.

If you are using the Discounted Cash Flow Approach, your Excel model should

• Include the following sheets with proper name in order: Football Field, DCF Approach (the valuation page), Statement of Income (or equivalent), Statement of Cash Flow, Balance Sheet, Depreciation Schedule, Working Capital Schedule and Debt Schedule.

• Your report should include last three-year’s actual data and 5 years of projection data.

• Keep all “Balance(Y/N)” check rows.
If you are using the Comparable Company Analysis, your Excel model should

• Include the following sheets with proper name in order: Football Field, COMPS, your target firm’s calculated Statement of Income (or comps calculation page using Template), comparable firm’s calculated Statement of Income (or comps calculation page using Template).

• Your COMPS analysis should include at least 3 other firms, which leads to a 4 firms total comps calculation minimum. Please note that you cannot use our in-class work of Wal-Mart, Costco or Target as one of your comparable firms or firm of analysis. A 25% point deduction will be taken for each one of these three firm used.

• On your calculation pages, include last three-year’s actual data and 1 year of projection data.
• Under each of your actual fiscal year number, mark the fiscal year ending date.

• Include all quarterly report data if they were used to calculate YE or LTM.
• Include diluted shares outstanding calculation and Enterprise Value calculation on the sheet of each firm.

Instruction on Analyst Report

In the analyst report, you are expected to include the following content

• Company Overview – Introduce the firm you analyzed: the firm’s business, its industry, competitive advantages and its current position in the industry.

• Analysis Note – In this sections, highlight the key changes you’ve made to the financial statements in order to fit into the standard template we discussed in class. Explain why you’ve made such change decisions (for example, move an item into non-recurring item) and how they could have impact your final valuation.

• Analysis of the Firm – highlight key facts you find with your model using the “Foot Field” chart we discussed in class. Describe your findings and compare them with the actual stock price trends. Why is your evaluation the same/different from the current market price? Name a few reasons.

• Self-Reflection – throughout your process of analyzing firms, what difficulties have you encountered? How did you solve them and what did you learn during this process. Please share your thoughts and self-reflection on the project you did.

General requirements on your analyst report include

• The report should be single spaced, at least two pages long before any figures and charts, with 1-inch margin and 11-point font.

• Do NOT have any tables, charts or pictures within the report. Attach all tables, charts and pictures at the end of the report as appendix. For example, instead of “See table below for …”, attach the table to the end of the report and write “ See table X at the end of the report for …”.

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